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新冠肺炎对零售业影响分析报告

发布作者：九游会老哥俱乐部发布时间：(2020-03-02)

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">联商网</a>消息：2020年春节期间，一场新冠肺炎疫情席卷全国。新冠肺炎疫情是新中国成立以来在我国发生的传播速度最快、感染范围最广、防控难度最大的一次重大突发公共卫生事件。经过上下艰苦努力，如今疫情防控形势正在向积极向好的态势转变。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">在这场疫情中，餐饮零售等领域受波及影响最大。疫情何时能结束？它对经济和零售业会产生怎样的影响？行业应该怎么做？联商网零售研究中心试图从17年前非典部分数据及当下零售行业等数据来推断新冠肺炎对零售行业的影响。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174422_0622.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img width="660" height="373" title="" align="" alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174422_0622_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">为此，2月25日，联商网零售研究中心独家发布了《新冠肺炎对零售业影响分析报告》（下称《报告》）。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">《报告》从疫情概述、非典疫情对零售行业影响、新冠肺炎疫情对零售行业影响、零售业应对措施、疫情中零售业思考等角度切入，希望通过分析能够勾勒出这次疫情对零售业的实际影响，并为未来发展提供思路参考。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">一、疫情概述 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">一）病毒未知疫情进展较快 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">于2019年12月在武汉率先发生的“新型冠状病毒肺炎”疫情，已经在2020年1月12日被WHO组织命名为“2019-nCoV”，属于冠状病毒，与SARS（非典型肺炎）和MERS（中东呼吸综合症）属于同一病毒家族。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">2月22日，国家卫健委决定将“新型冠状病毒肺炎”英文名称修订为“COVID-19”，与世界卫生组织命名保持一致，中文名称保持不变。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174720_5622.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174720_5622_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">2019年12月31日，武汉市卫健委发布《关于当前我市肺炎疫情的情况通报》，称发现27例与华南海鲜城有关的肺炎。此后到1月5日，新型肺炎患者升至59例；一直到1月17日，武汉确诊的新型肺炎患者数量也只有62例。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">但从1月18日开始，新型肺炎患者数量开始大幅上升，1月18日累计确诊过百例，到1月24日累计确诊超千例，而到1月31日累计确诊超万例，到2月10日累计确诊超过4万例。截至2月25日15时30分，全国累计确诊77782例，累计治愈27485例，现存确诊47631例。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">二）相比SARS传染性更强，但终将战胜 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">根据WHO在2003年8月发布数据，从2002年11月发现第一例非典型肺炎患者到2003年7月发现最后一例，全球共有8422例SARS患者，这意味着新型冠状病毒肺炎的传染性大大超过了SARS。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174839_4997.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174839_4997_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">新型冠状病毒肺炎属于全新病毒，目前尚无有效疫苗，而制造疫苗需要时间。在没有疫苗的情况下，隔离是切断传播途径最为重要的手段。为了有效切断传播途径，全国各地施行了交通管制、延期复工等措施。疫情管控给零售业带来了严峻的挑战，同时也带来了新机遇。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">虽然新冠肺炎疫情来势汹汹，但有党中央的坚强领导，有中国特色社会主义制度的显著优势，有强大的动员能力和雄厚的综合实力，有全党全军全国各族人民的团结奋斗，九游会老哥俱乐部一定能够战胜这场疫情，也一定能够保持我国经济社会良好发展势头。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">二、非典疫情对零售行业影响 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">一）疫情高峰期GDP下降1.7％ <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">非典期间，政府实施各种交通管制措施从2003年4月23日开始，到6月疫情基本结束取消。因此，非典疫情对经济影响主要在4月下旬和5月份。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174544_4216.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174544_4216_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">在非典疫情集中爆发的第二季度，中国GDP增速由一季度的10.8％减速至9.1％，不过三季度有迅速回升到10％。2003年全年GDP增速为10％，比2002年的9.1％上升明显。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">二）社零消费骤降但疫情结束后迅速反弹 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174557_1716.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174557_1716_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">数据显示，2003年3月社会消费品零售总额增速为9.2％。在上级采取管制措施以后，4月社会消费品零售总额增速降至8.1％，5月这一数据降至4.3％，6月份逐渐放开管制后迅速反弹至8.3％，7月份回归正常的9％增速以上水平。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">联商网零售研究中心认为，2003年全球经济处于复苏阶段，总体形势向好。而我国国内也处于经济强周期。在加入WTO后的效应下，非典并没有对整体零售趋势造成大的影响，行业并未从此低迷，疫情过去后迅速反弹。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">三）细分品类服饰<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1469.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">珠宝</a>影响较大 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">在社会消费品零售总额细分领域中，粮油、食品、饮料、烟酒和<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1468.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">化妆</a>品受非典影响较小。而金银珠宝、<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1472.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">服装</a>等可选消费品类的社零增速明显低于行业整体。这些品类的需求弹性较大，受疫情的影响较明显。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">四）百货、餐饮行业下滑明显 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">细化到零售业态，影响最大的是百货行业，贴近民生的超市业态影响较小甚至出现增长。餐饮行业门店关门歇业率达到70％，经营业绩普遍比2002年同期下滑50-80％。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175018_3434.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175018_3434_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">以北京为例，北京市统计局数据显示，2003年4月份北京的19家百货商场零售额同比下降17.6％，比3月份下降26.7％。与此同时，<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1169.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">物美</a>、美廉美、<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1161.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">家乐福</a>等14家超市4月份共实现零售额10亿元，同比增长20.3％。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">三、新冠肺炎疫情对零售行业影响 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">此次新冠疫情对零售行业短期内影响较非典更强，个别业态损失较大，但从长期看不影响零售行业的整体增长趋势，电商、超市等业态反而在此次疫情中有了更多机会。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">一）行业预期不足，但更求稳 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">我国经济正在由高增长向中增长转型，再加上中美贸易摩擦，社零消费持续承压。联商网零售研究中心通过分析发出的7000多份有效调研问卷后发现，56％的零售人认为2020年会更加困难，13％的人认为2020年的零售行业前景不明朗。面对不确定性的未来，有42.8％的从业者认为零售企业要练好基本功，行业需要“稳”。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">二）1至2月社零增长或低于4％疫情后会恢复 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">从GDP增速来看，2020年我国经济基本面不同于2003年非典时期。2003年中国经济处于上行周期，但是当前我国经济处下行周期，2019年四季度GDP增速仅为6％。如果GDP与非典一样，二季度下降1.7％，也会是近年来的最低增速。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174931_2341.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174931_2341_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">从社零增长来看，2003年全年，除了非典高峰期的4月和5月，其他各月份社零增速均不低于8％。而2019年全年社零增速超过8％的月份只有6个月。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">2019年1-2月全国社会消费品零售总额为66064亿元，而2019年春节，全国零售和餐饮消费额约为10050亿元，占比近1/6。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">联商网零售研究中心认为，1月底开始到2月中旬零售和餐饮消费几乎暂停，2020年1-2月社会消费品零售增长或将低于4％。疫情过后，会恢复至全年平均水平，甚至会出现报复性消费增长。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">三）百货商场或迎来最“冷”一季度 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">疫情爆发正值新春佳节的销售高峰时期，今年迎来了真正意义上的“寒冬”。联商网零售研究中心统计，从1月25日起，全国数千家百货、<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_376.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">购物中心</a>等大型商场陆续暂停营业，只保留店内超市对外开放，其他业态开业时间未定。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174944_8122.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174944_8122_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">非典时期最严重的五月，北京大型百货商场营业额普遍下跌30％以上。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响更大，全国实施的管制措施更严格，百货、购物中心迎来史上最“冷”一季度。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">值得注意的是，从2018年起，整个百货行业开始进入快速下行期，2019年一季度限额以上百货门店的零售额增长率只有0.9％，全年只增长1.4％。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">受疫情影响，2020年一季度百货行业恐将迎来近年以来的首次同比下跌。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">四）购物中心新开项目五年来最低 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175049_7028.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175049_7028_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">对于购物中心开业情况而言，新项目开业在疫情期间也出现了下滑。纵观近五年(2016年至2020年)1月份开业的商业项目情况，2020年1月创下了近年来新低(事实上，从九游会老哥俱乐部以往记录的数据上看，已经是六年最低)，仅为26个，同比跌幅达35％。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">五）现金流、库存是品牌零售商的大问题 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">零售作为流通行业，现金流、库存周转、员工是影响企业发展的重要因素。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">据调查显示，本次疫情对品牌商家最主要造成的影响前三位的依次是：销售业绩大幅下滑、现金流紧张、库存和员工问题。进一步调研结果显示，现金流紧张的品牌商家多数现金流维持在3个月以内，形势严峻。而库存则在服装企业表现得尤为明显。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">联商网零售研究中心认为，由于2019年属于暖冬，因此冬季服饰销售并不理想，受疫情影响，春节期间未完成清库存的目标。目前已经有多家上市服饰企业开始陆续发布2019年盈利能力预警。且因疫情发展尚不清晰，多数服饰企业春夏服装订购将会出现问题。因此，今年将是服饰企业的洗牌之年。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">六）餐饮或将迎来调整潮 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">春节历来是餐饮业的黄金时期，2019年春节全国零售和餐饮消费额约为10050亿元。此次受疫情影响的餐饮零售额在春节七天内将会腰斩，损失近5000亿元。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174754_2966.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174754_2966_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">目前全国共有超过2000万家餐饮业企业，其中个体工商户占比超过95％。从全国范围来看，山东以194万家、湖北以169万家、江苏以163万家企业量位居全国前三，其次为广东、四川、河南、浙江、河北、安徽、重庆等地。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">而在这其中，餐饮业务企业数量占比最高(本省范围)的则是湖北和重庆，分别为32.8％和36.4％。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">联商网零售研究中心认为，个体工商户对抗风险能力低，受租金、员工成本、库存压力等影响，疫情结束后，或将迎来一波餐饮门店的调整潮。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">七）超市<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_374.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">大卖场</a>或稳中有增 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">超市大卖场作为线下民生行业，为本地居民提供基本的生活商品，疫情期间在政府的支持下基本保持正常开工状态。为了减少外出，居民计划性采购增加，超市人均客单显著提升。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174809_7028.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225174809_7028_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">值得注意的是，由于正值春节期间，商超一般留足了从正月初一到十五两个星期的库存量，因为生产厂家和一般供应商要到正月十五后开始正常供货。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">对生产厂家来说，也一般会留出一个星期至两个星期的库存量，同样道理，厂家和其他供应商要为工人在正月十五之后开工留下了余量。一般情况下，工业消费品市场（生鲜食品除外）会有一个月的市场存量，不过需要谨防商超出现商品短缺问题。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">联商网零售研究中心认为，超市行业成为这次疫情受影响最小的行业，随着疫情管控时间的加长，大宗购物的时限也被拉长，超市大卖场在疫情期间或成为零售行业为数不多的保持增长的业态之一。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">八）生鲜电商供应链能力待考 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">受疫情影响，线下用户开始向线上转移，电商特别是能够提供及时配送服务的生鲜电商订单量开始暴增，主要到家平台在春节期间交易额均产生了200％以上的增长。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175155_2809.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175155_2809_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">不过，暴增之后伴随而来的是运力与供应链的压力叠加，特别是运力压力。提供及时配送服务的生鲜电商配送员多以大专、高中、职高、技校毕业生为主，且多数为外来务工人员。春节期间大部分人员返乡回家，疫情管制导致他们不能及时返城复工，导致此前各平台宣称的半小时达、1小时达已变为2小时达甚至隔天配送。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">四、零售业应对措施 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">面对疫情，零售企业显示了行业担当，保物价，稳民心，大的零售平台也采取减免租金，免费入驻等措施共克时艰。同时，零售全渠道成果也在这场战疫中得到了检验。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">一）疫情加速实体零售转战全渠道 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">由于疫情的传染性，消费者外出采购意向明显减弱，更倾向线上购买。大量订单涌向到家业务。未入驻线上到家平台的实体零售商家为了增加销售渠道，加快了入驻速度。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">以<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1586.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">京东</a>到家平台为例，针对疫情推出的“到家新鲜菜场”项目，初期就有56家连锁超市加入。饿了么口碑疫情期间也有10万家新增门店。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">除了入驻到家平台，实体零售的数字化全渠道开始被送上战场检验。数据显示，很多零售商APP、网站、小程序、到家平台已经全部上线，如<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1178.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">华润万家</a>、<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1157.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">大润发</a>、<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1159.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">沃尔玛</a>、永辉、联华等。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175111_7809.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175111_7809_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">本次疫情期间零售商们的全渠道也开始发挥作用，正式迎来大考。总体看，已开通线上渠道的零售商们，疫情期间线上增长基本都有2倍以上。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">联商网零售研究中心认为，疫情让实体零售企业尝到了数字化全渠道的好处，也让现有全渠道系统得到了一次检验。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">未来零售一定是数字化全渠道的世界，此次疫情会倒逼业务在线化，企业业务在线化也会倒逼企业提升<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_434.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">信息化</a>和数字化的水平。疫情结束后，零售企业的数字化变革将迎来新高潮。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">二）购物商场减免租金救助品牌 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">面对疫情，购物中心面临着严峻的租金压力。不过，全国6000多家购物中心开始宣布减免租金，与商铺共度难关，预计减免租金近百亿元。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">联商网零售研究中心认为，面对疫情减免租金，商场还是需要根据自身情况量力而行，切不可盲目攀比。对品牌商以及消费者来说，也不能据此来判断某一个商场好坏，爱国与否的标准。这个时候，应该是甲乙双方一起携手，共克时艰。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175226_2497.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175226_2497_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175232_9841.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175232_9841_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">对品牌商来说，减免租金政策短期内可以减轻负担，但租金只是截流，未来如何开源才是重点。品牌商的重心还是要回归到如何在逆境中创造销售机会。关键还是在疫情缓和后的疗伤恢复期，除了业主的房租租金减免以外，后续各地政府的政策扶持也很重要。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">三）百货、购物中心与品牌推动在线直播自救 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">疫情影响下，为避免人群聚集、病毒扩散，大多数商场选择暂停营业。为了挽回闭店带来的经济损失，在安全系数可控的前提下实现销售，并满足顾客的购物需求，百货购物中心及品牌商们开始选择直播购物这种无接触式销售。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175329_6247.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175329_6247_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">从目前数据看，多数商场是抱着尝试和测试的态度，涉及的品牌多以服饰美妆和电子产品为主，主要集中在微信直播、<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1584.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">淘宝</a>直播和抖音直播三大主流平台。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">从品牌商看，越来越多的品牌也开始线上直播自救。根据淘宝公布的数据，2月以来，每天都有3万新商家入驻淘宝，转型线上；淘宝直播新开播的直播间数量同比翻倍，新开播场次同比增长110%，厂家直接上淘宝直播卖货的同比增长50%。服饰、美妆、家装3个行业的线下门店直播最为活跃。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">四）零售一线企业推“共享员工” <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">在疫情冲击之下，国人“宅”在家导致餐饮店门庭冷落，收入源头几近被切断，但员工工资等成本却依然存在。而另一边，超市、电商等一线出现员工和配送员大量缺口。一边处于用工荒，一边需要减轻人员开支，这成为两个行业合作的关键。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">2月3日，盒马率先在行业宣布联合云海肴、西贝、探鱼、青年餐厅等餐饮品牌达成“共享员工”模式合作后，陆续有数十家零售企业参与进来。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175251_0309.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175251_0309_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">联商网零售研究中心认为，实际上在一些发达国家，这种用工模式已经非常流行。不同之处在于，“共享员工”是企业与企业之间自行调配<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_551.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">人力资源</a>，解决特殊时期的问题。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">而国际上的普遍做法是由第三方公司来调配企业间的用工需求，因此灵活用工很可能在未来成为一种趋势。但这并不意味着“共享员工”不存在问题。在疫情期间，员工安全、员工福利以及员工去到合作企业后的召回问题需要谨慎处理。当疫情得到控制，餐饮企业需要开工但员工如果还在外派，不能及时到岗，就会给企业带来影响。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">五、疫情中零售业思考 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">一）零售企业应该把自己作为国家重大灾难救治的基础建设部分 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">在2011年日本东北大地震发生之后，特别是在福岛核泄漏产生巨大的社会恐慌下，以<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1262.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">7-11</a>为主的日本<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_372.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">便利店</a>承担起了食品供应、稳定民心的重要作用。7-11也提出，要作为全国性灾难救治的基础建设，他们希望能在重大灾难的时候，任何灾民在几个小时之内就能看到7-11。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">在这次疫情中，各地政府在要求各种商业场所关闭的时候，一致性把超市和到家服务的生鲜电商纳入保障民生的企业名单。只要超市还开着门，只要生鲜电商还能买到产品，人心总是稳定的。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">今后，如何发挥好零售业便利性、亲民性，在非常时期起到稳定民心，维护社会正常秩序的作用是值得九游会老哥俱乐部思考的。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">二）零售数字化全渠道刻不容缓 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">正如前文所述，在疫情期间全国许多超市调动企业所有资源发展线上业务，取得了惊人的进展。使用APP系统的超市表现出色，天虹线上销售已经超过30%，永辉生活线上销售占比也已经超过10%。用腾讯小程序的超市公司表现也非常喜人，<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1185.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">步步高</a>线上超过10%，以社区团购为主要线上业务模式如<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1193.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">家家悦</a>有些门店线上超过37%，湖北襄阳<a class="hotwords" rel="nofollow" href="http://t.linkshop.com.cn/kindex_id_1271.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">好邻居</a>线上占14%、湖南佳惠线上超过10%。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175349_4059.png" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 187, 190); text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="" src="http://www.linkshop.com.cn/upload/article/2020/20200225175349_4059_lssize.jpg" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="border: currentColor; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" /></a> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">未来，零售全渠道是一种必然趋势。全渠道的前提就是零售数字化。这次疫情后，还没有进行数字化的企业要加快这方面进程。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">三）生鲜供应链的建设任重道远 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">零售的核心是商品，而商品的核心是供应链。本次疫情让生鲜行业进入了“冰火两重天”的境地。一方面，“全面线上抢菜”让生鲜电商订单量暴增，供不应求；而另一方面，全国范围内的农产品滞销，农户损失惨重。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">目前，生鲜农产品种养殖端的薄弱、产地生鲜产品产后标准化管理体系建设不成熟，供应链流通环节的落后也阻碍了生鲜产品与生鲜零售发展。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">目前不管在疫情期间线上火爆的生鲜电商，还是线下的生鲜超市，能正常盈利的不多，其根本是因为生鲜的供应链问题。不管生鲜模式如何，只有围绕生鲜产品做好供应链与SKU，为消费者提供稳定产品与服务，盈利才能应运而生。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">四）商场更需注意细节建立完善的应急体系 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-transform: none; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">在此次疫情期间，大型商场是受损失最大的业态之一。商场感染的案例也最为惊心，如发生在天津宝坻百货大楼的疫情已导致32例感染，超过1万人居家隔离。商场作为人流密集场所，在平时就更应该加强卫生安全环境工作，如确保洗手间的洗手液不间断供应，空气环境加强持续监测和优化，注意卖场卫生死角的清洁维护，从而建设一个更绿色安全的消费环境。同时，对突发事件要进一步建立和完善紧急应对体系。

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